روندپژوهی راهبرد جنگ روانی و تهدید نظامی اسراییل علیه برنامه هسته‏ ای ایران (از افشاء برنامه تا پایان مذاکرات برجام)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران.

10.22080/jpir.2022.24151.1304

چکیده

برنامه هسته‏ای ایران طی دو دهه به نگرانی اصلی امنیت ملی اسراییل تبدیل شده است. در مقابل، تل‏آویو راهبردی چندوجهی را به منظور توقف فعالیت‏های هسته‏ای کشورمان طراحی کرده که یکی از مهم‏ترین اجزاء آن، جنگ روانی پیچیده از تابستان 2002(افشاء فعالیت‏ها) تا جولای 2015(امضای توافقنامه برجام) بوده است. این مقاله بر آن است تا با استفاده از روش روندپژوهشی به فهم شیوه چندوجهی جنگ روانی در بازه مزبور بپردازد و توصیه‏هایی را برای تقابل با آن ارائه دهد. پرسش اساسی آن است که جنگ روانی اسراییل علیه برنامه اتمی ایران از چه ویژگی‏های خاصی برخوردار است؟ فرضیه اصلی آن است که جنگ روانی اسراییل علیه برنامه اتمی ایران با هدف متاثرسازی مقامات تهران و واشنگتن از طریق جدی جلوه دادن سناریوی حمله نظامی علیه تأسیسات اتمی ایران، طراحی شده است. اساسی‏ترین درون‏مایه این دوره، دامن‏زدن به نگرانی‏ها درباره خطرات پرونده هسته‏ای ایران است؛ دومین بن‏مایه، تأکید بر سایر تهدیداتِ نظام سیاسی ایران خصوصا سیاست‎ تهاجمی آن شامل مشارکت در فعالیت‏های تروریستی و فعالیت‏های دامنه‏دار در گسترش موشک‏های دوربرد است؛ سومین موضوع، تهدید حمله به تأسیسات هسته‏ای ایران در خلال سالهای 2010 تا 2012 است ؛و چهارمین مولفه از 2013 به بعد، جنگ روانی علیه مذاکرات هسته‏ای میان ایران و قدرت‏های جهان است که نهایتا زمینه خروج ترامپ از برجام را فراهم آورد. بخش دوم مقاله به ارزیابی چالش‏های تل‏آویو در عملیاتی کردن راهبرد جنگ روانی خود علیه فعالیت‏های هسته‏ای ایران خصوصا تحت تاثیر تجربه مذاکرات هسته‏ای و امضای برجام می‏پردازد و نهایتا برخی اقدامات مقتضی متقابل توصیه شده است.

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