Analysis of China's Mediation Model in International Conflicts: A Case Study and Perspectives on Entering the Israel-Palestine Conflict

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 ISU

2 National Defense University, Tehran, Iran

10.22080/jpir.2025.29881.1443

Abstract

While many international relations scholars predict the decline of the US-led unipolar system,China,as the only potential competitor,is seeking to play a more prominent role in the new world order by taking advantage of its economic power.One of China's key tools for achieving a hegemonic position is playing an active role in the field of international mediation.The present study aims to explain China's behavioral pattern in this area and answers the main question:"Based on which indicators does China enter international conflicts as a mediator and does this pattern provide the basis for mediation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?"Using a descriptive-analytical method and within the theoretical framework of neorealism, this study extracts China's behavioral pattern through a case study of this country's successful mediations in the Iran-Saudi Arabia and Taliban-Pakistan conflicts.The findings of the study show that China's decision to enter a conflict is based on a four-pronged analytical model that includes the disputed area (the existence of a power vacuum), the actors involved (alignment with China's strategic interests),the timing (decline of rival power), and the degree of influence (possibility of a balance of power). By applying this model to the Israel-Palestine conflict, it is concluded that due to the strategic presence of the United States in the region, the absence of a tangible power vacuum, and the lack of full alignment of the interests of the actors with China's priorities, this country will not have an incentive to play a direct mediator role in this conflict in the short and medium term.

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